S&P500 Daily Action Areas & Price Targets 13/11/26 

***QUOTING ES1!(Z CONTRACT LEVLES) FOR CASH US500 EQUIVALENT LEVELS, SUBTRACT POINT DIFFERENCE***

MONTHLY-WEEKLY& DAILY LEVELS

MONTHLY BULL BEAR ZONE 7275/35

MONTHLY RANGE RES 7980 SUP 7361

WEEKLY BULL BEAR ZONE 7300/7290

WEEKLY RANGE RES 7631/51 SUP 7170/50

DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE 7595/85

GLOBEX RANGE SUP 7573/35  RES 7648/86

GAMMA FLIP 7606

DELTA FLIP 7569

CALL WALLS 7668/7706

PUT WALLS 7519/65

DAILY STRUCTURE - BALANCE 7647/7581

WEEKLY STRUCTURE - OTFL - 7746

MONTHLY STRUCTURE - TBC

VIX BULL BEAR ZONE 18.72  

VVIX-to-VIX ratio, currently hovering at approximately 5.17, comfortably falls within the historically typical range of 4.0 to 6.0. This suggests that volatility expectations are in a neutral zone, reflecting neither panic nor extreme contrarian sentiments.

PRIMARY TRADES & TARGETS 

LONG ON REJECT/RECLAIM DBBZ TARGET RTH CLOSE>DAILY RANGE RES

***ADDITIONAL SETUPS & TARGETS HIGHLIGHTED ON THE CHARTS***

(I FADE TESTS OF 2 SIGMA LEVELS ESPECIALLY INTO THE FINAL HOUR OF THE NY CASH SESSION AS 90% OF THE TIME WHEN TESTED THE MARKET WILL CLOSE ABOVE OR BELOW THESE LEVELS)

SPX PUT/CALL RATIO 1.10 (The numbers reflect options traded during the current session.) A put-call ratio below 0.7 is generally considered bullish, and a put-call ratio above 1.0 is generally considered bearish.

JHEQX Upside cap (~7,920–7,950): Dealer gamma hedging at this call strike creates resistance, with market makers likely selling futures into strength and limiting volatility. Downside cushion (~7,270): If SPX drops 5% into Q4, long put gamma may force dealers to buy futures as the index falls, helping stabilize prices. Expiration: December 31, 2026. Strong pinning effects are likely near key strikes into year-end expiration.

DEC2025 OPEX to DEC2026 OPEX is 945 points giving us a range of [5889,7779]

Notes On Structure Implications

Balance: This refers to a market condition where prices move within a defined range, reflecting uncertainty as participants await further market-generated information. Our approach to balance includes favouring fade trades at the range extremes (highs/lows) while preparing for potential breakout scenarios if the balance shifts.

One-Time Framing Higher (OTFH): This represents a market trend where each successive bar forms a higher low, signalling a strong and consistent upward movement.

One-Time Framing Lower (OTFL): This describes a market trend where each successive bar forms a lower high, indicating a pronounced and steady downward movement.

GOLDMAN SACHS FICC & EQUITY TRADING DESK VIEWS

RETAIL FOOTPRINT EXPLODES TO 32% OF TAPE WHILE HFS ROTATE OUT OF HYPERSCALERS INTO SEMIS

Despite muted institutional high-touch activity (-20% vs. the trailing two-week average) due to the US bond market holiday, broader equity market volumes surged +13% above the 10-day moving average. Price action was heavily shaped by retail flow and targeted hedge fund re-risking:


  • Concentrated Retail Footprint: Just three sub-$1 penny stocks (all trading at 4 cents) accounted for 32% of total exchange share volume, driving the Goldman Sachs Retail Favorites basket (GSXURFAV) up +6.46%—its second-best single-day gain in three years.

  • Semiconductor Decoupling & Technical Test: Semis ran 17% better to buy across the platform, propelled by aggressive hedge fund accumulation alongside Long-Only participation. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) has rallied +14% since Monday, pushing back within striking distance of its 200-day moving average at 10,865—a remarkable divergence given Nvidia (NVDA) fell -540 bps over the exact same stretch.

  • Hyperscaler Source of Funds: Mega-cap hyperscalers lagged the broader risk-on bounce as institutional accounts utilized the cohort as a liquidity funding source to finance rotations into neoclouds, semiconductors, and beaten-down AI hardware, even as NVDA worked to claw back part of its $430B single-week market cap drawdown.

FRANCHISE FLOWS & CLIENT COHORT DIVERGENCE

  • Floor Activity & Tape Volume:


    • High-Touch Activity: Down -20% relative to the trailing two-week pace (holiday-thinned institutional desks).

    • Consolidated Tape Volume: Up +13% versus the 10-day moving average, heavily inflated by low-priced retail turnover.

    • Overall Platform Skew: Finished +13% better to buy, anchored by systematic and discretionary hedge fund inflows.

  • Hedge Funds (+18% Better to Buy):


    • Led directional re-risking across the franchise with pronounced buy skews concentrated in Technology (specifically semiconductors and neoclouds) and Consumer Discretionary.

  • Long-Only Asset Managers (Slightly Better to Buy):


    • Executed a clear defensive/cyclical rotation under the surface—actively selling Technology and Consumer Discretionary to fund purchases in Healthcare, Communication Services, and Industrials.

SYSTEMATIC & TECHNICAL CATALYSTS

  • CTA Asymmetric Upside Fuel: Goldman Sachs CTA flow modeling indicates that follow-through momentum carries substantial systematic tailwinds, with meaningful algorithmic buying demand triggered across an up-tape over both 1-week and 1-month horizons.

  • Key Index Technical Threshold:


    • SOX 200-Day Moving Average (10,865): Reclaiming and holding above 10,865 remains the immediate technical trigger to force systematic trend-following covers and confirm a durable semiconductor trend reversal.

  • Subsequent Session Context: Heading into Thursday, November 12 and Friday, November 13, markets digested Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang's resignation headlines (NVDA dropping an additional -4.5% on Thursday before stabilizing in Friday pre-market futures), alongside renewed crude oil strength and post-bell earnings beats from Cisco (CSCO) and Applied Materials (AMAT), shifting focus squarely onto Friday morning's October PPI release.