## Market regime takeaway

The environment is high-dispersion and hard to risk-manage with single, concentrated bets. Spot FX is likely to be rangy and reactive to swings in risk sentiment and positioning, so the edge comes from structure, sizing, and avoiding over-reliance on one macro narrative.

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## USD view and implementation

The directional bias is to sell USD on rallies versus currencies with stronger fundamental backdrops. But absent a major US portfolio outflow shock, the cleaner expression is a basket approach and crosses rather than one large USD-short position.

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## Long book takeaways

JPY is being kept on despite uncomfortable price action, with an emphasis on using options to carry the thesis through elections and keeping flexibility to add spot risk on spikes toward the 159–160 “intervention zone” in USDJPY. Near-term, that framing admits upside risk in USDJPY can persist even if the medium-term yen thesis is constructive.

AUD is framed as a dip-buy after a hawkish hike. The preference is AUD over NZD given NZ labor data not extending the recovery narrative. Tactically, AUDUSD holding 0.6900 is treated as important; a sustained break would be a negative signal for timing.

SEK is treated as a correction within a broader pro-cyclical, fiscal-differentiation narrative. The trade expression is mainly via EURSEK shorts with defined pain points: a move back above 10.75 would challenge the idea, while stops in EURSEK through 10.65 are referenced as a potential accelerant lower.

HUF is viewed as benefitting from underinvestment and participation, with an eye on a potential “speed bump” around Feb 14; the plan is to trim if appreciation continues into next week.

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## Short book takeaways

CAD remains a preferred short on a structural weak-growth/uncertainty story, with skepticism that late-2025 data strength persists enough to force BoC hikes this year. Canadian payrolls are the near-term decision point for adding.

GBP is framed as stretched after a strong run, with UK politics re-entering price discovery. The idea is that leadership uncertainty can reintroduce risk premium; EURGBP is highlighted as a cleaner expression than outright cable in that context, with 0.87 as a nearby level, and cable support noted around 1.3575/25 then 1.3490/00.

EUR is treated as range-bound: ECB stability, decent growth and fiscal impulse, limited pushback at the top end of ranges, but also not an obvious breakout story unless USD comes under renewed heavy pressure. Corporate supply is flagged as a headwind when EUR tries to base, and the posture is mostly sidelined aside from residual optionality.

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## Practical risk-management takeaway

The through-line is to avoid “one-trade-to-rule-them-all” USD positioning in this tape. Use crosses to isolate themes (UK politics, AUD vs CAD, EUR vs AUD), keep directional USD shorts opportunistic on rallies, and anchor tactics around the cited levels/events (BoE, ECB tone, US data, Canada payrolls, USDJPY intervention zone, AUDUSD 0.6900, EURSEK 10.70–10.75 area).